Forget the Background Noise, the USMCA is the Story
Updated: Feb 13
THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING WEEK, with an FOMC statement that may acknowledge problems in the repo market, with the U.K holding a cringe-inducing election, with impeachment momentum continuing despite reservations by some Democrats, and with Mike Bloomberg starting to make a move.
But there’s only one issue that could make a major difference for the markets — the U.S.-China trade talks, facing a Dec. 15 deadline.
There was surge of euphoria on Oct. 11 when an “agreement in principle” with China was announced by Donald Trump, but the details were hazy and the talks subsequently hit the rocks, once again.
This much appears certain — no one will fall for the “agreement in principle” hype; the devil will be in the details.
At long last, an agreement appears to be imminent on a U.S.-Mexico-Canada deal to replace NAFTA; negotiators are close to finalizing provisions on compliance with labor standards.
It’s possible that final signatures may not come until early 2020, but this deal is 98% finished, a source told us this weekend.