Is Global Growth About to Run Into Recession?

Updated: Dec 10, 2019

United States outlook

Broad-based U.S. growth implies a low probability of recession,and the U.S. remains in a prolonged shift between the mid- and late-cycle phases of expansion.

Global outlook

The global expansion is becoming less synchronized, with the pace of overall activity likely past its peak.

China's economy remains in an expansionary phase,but the industrial sector has slowed materially and the risks of a growth recession continue to rise. Policymakers may have begun to ease monetary conditions, but overall activity is in a decelerating trend.

Asset allocation outlook

We believe the world is in the midst of a slow transition toward a less accommodative monetary policy stance, global activity has peaked, the U.S. business cycle continues to mature, asset valuations are not generally attractive, and policy and geopolitical risks are elevated.

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